[No Politics] What you need to know about CoVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 [No Politics]

[Frank Dernie]

Wow. Didn't expect that type of a reply on this site! I was raised to ACTUALLY listen (or in this case read) what other people have to say, and then make an evaluation based on the integration of both your beliefs and what the alternatives have to say. You may not agree with the opinion/site (I'm not making any judgements either way), but it is always interesting to stretch the bounds just a bit and consider some alternatives.

Interesting article in Psychology Today (summary of the paper at https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/...01107/you-end-believing-what-you-want-believe).


I think the summary of the conclusion says it all:

"In many real-world situations, there is conflicting evidence from different studies. So, it is important to make judgments about which evidence is strongest. But, these results suggest that people are biased to interpret the evidence in ways that are consistent with their desires. That means that people may ultimately come to believe that the weight of evidence supports the position that they already wanted to believe was true. And they will believe this without recognizing that their own desires influenced the evaluation of the evidence."

Summarizes many of the discussions in the audio world, IMO.

There are so many crank web sites on the internet that the first thing I do is look into the credibility of the site itself and the source. If one or both are obviously of questionable credibility I don't waste time reading them.
It saves time.

 

[maty]

What we are experiencing:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1260893730862698497

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doubting_Thomas

[ 29. Jesus saith unto him, Thomas, because thou hast seen me, thou hast believed: blessed [are] they that have not seen, and [yet] have believed. ]

 

[MarcT]

Not worth reading an article from a nutcase conspiracy theorist site IMHO.

Well, I read the whole article, but only some of the comments, many of which disputed the author's opinion. Seems pretty well reasoned and cited to me.

 

[Frank Dernie]

Well, I read the whole article, but only some of the comments, many of which disputed the author's opinion. Seems pretty well reasoned and cited to me.

 

[jhaider]

Well, I read the whole article, but only some of the comments, many of which disputed the author's opinion. Seems pretty well reasoned and cited to me.

Here’s a good explanation of why that may be the case:

Interesting article in Psychology Today (summary of the paper at https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/...01107/you-end-believing-what-you-want-believe).

I think the summary of the conclusion says it all:

"In many real-world situations, there is conflicting evidence from different studies. So, it is important to make judgments about which evidence is strongest. But, these results suggest that people are biased to interpret the evidence in ways that are consistent with their desires. That means that people may ultimately come to believe that the weight of evidence supports the position that they already wanted to believe was true. And they will believe this without recognizing that their own desires influenced the evaluation of the evidence."

 

[MarcT]

So, I assume there is some reason why you apparently reject the article in its entirety? Did you read it?

 

[MarcT]

Here’s a good explanation of why that may be the case:

Right, and do you think it's possible that such expectation bias works both ways?!

 

[Frank Dernie]

So, I assume there is some reason why you apparently reject the article in its entirety? Did you read it?

No.
There are so many apparently convincing nut-jobs on the web I check the credibility of the author and site before reading any link.
Here neither are credible, however well reasoned it may seem to somebody who would like to believe it is true, which could be me.
I have come to the conclusion that I would rather read an uncomfortable truth or have my opinion challenged by facts, and change it than the rosy glow of finding a like minded soul who doesn't know what he is talking about.
But that is just me.

 

[Soniclife]

I have come to the conclusion that I would rather read an uncomfortable truth or have my opinion challenged by facts, and change it than the rosy glow of finding a like minded soul who doesn't know what he is talking about.
But that is just me.

You're not alone, but it feels like an increasingly small club these days.

 

[Wes]

Not to prolong the discussion of the unqualified political stie post...

But let me share something my PhD advisor told me, and that I later passed on to my own graduate students:

People usually read the Abstract or Discussion sections of a journal article first. Don't do that. Read the Methods section first. If the methods are inadequate, then there is no reason to read anything else. You will save time.

 

[Wes]

8 minutes

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/12/2006874117

 

[maty]

The airborne lifetime of small speech droplets and their potential importance in SARS-CoV-2 transmission
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/12/2006874117

[ Abstract

Speech droplets generated by asymptomatic carriers of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are increasingly considered to be a likely mode of disease transmission. Highly sensitive laser light scattering observations have revealed that loud speech can emit thousands of oral fluid droplets per second. In a closed, stagnant air environment, they disappear from the window of view with time constants in the range of 8 to 14 min, which corresponds to droplet nuclei of ca. 4 μm diameter, or 12- to 21-μm droplets prior to dehydration. These observations confirm that there is a substantial probability that normal speaking causes airborne virus transmission in confined environments. ]

 

[BsdKurt]

[ Abstract

Speech droplets generated by asymptomatic carriers of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are increasingly considered to be a likely mode of disease transmission. Highly sensitive laser light scattering observations have revealed that loud speech can emit thousands of oral fluid droplets per second. In a closed, stagnant air environment, they disappear from the window of view with time constants in the range of 8 to 14 min, which corresponds to droplet nuclei of ca. 4 μm diameter, or 12- to 21-μm droplets prior to dehydration. These observations confirm that there is a substantial probability that normal speaking causes airborne virus transmission in confined environments. ]

This supports the case studies in the The-Risks-Know-Them-Avoid-Them post that I previously posted. Loud indoor environments like restaurants, call-centers, meat packing and a choir all require speaking loudly to be heard by others (or singing).

What I really would like to see is them redoing the study with various face coverings like a bandanna, t-shirt, scarf, etc to determine how much of the droplets escape the covering.

 

[maty]

Bad news,

Coronavirus: Murcia registra el mayor repunte de Covid-19 en España
[Spain] https://www.redaccionmedica.com/autonomias/murcia/coronavirus-murcia-repunte-covid-19-espana-5852

Coronavirus: Murcia registers the biggest rebound of Covid-19 in Spain
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.redaccionmedica.com/autonomias/murcia/coronavirus-murcia-repunte-covid-19-espana-5852

[ The Region of Murcia has been with the growing coronavirus epidemic since May 10 . According to data from the Carlos III Health Institute , the basic reproductive index (R0) of Covid-19 disease was on May 9 at 0.91; however, on the 10th it passed to 1.52 ; May 11 at 1.29; on May 12, 1.51; up to 1.6 on May 13 (last reported day).

Taking into account that this factor must be below 1 to guarantee that the epidemic is in remission, the Region has spent several days with an index that would not admit successive changes in the de-escalation phase, since the Ministry of Health has explained on several occasions that it is key to be below 1 in order to disconcert. In fact, the first day of its Phase 1, on May 11, the R0 index was already above 1 and it has been increasing.

In fact, the Region of Murcia has the highest R0 in Spain and only the Canary Islands is the other Community that has this index above 1, only at a lower level : 1.03 on May 11, 1.12 on May 12; and a slight decline to 1.11 for May 13.

This newspaper has contacted the Ministry of Health of Murcia to find out if they have detected the reason why they show a basic reproductive index above 1 and it is also the highest in the country, without the publication of this information we have obtained a response... ]


In the seroprevalence study it was the province with the least infected, 1.4%. It seems evident that some Murcians do not comply with the rules of social distancing and health etiquette.

The virus has not disappeared and you cannot let your guard down. We have to force the widespread use of masks if we want to recover a large part of economic activity.

And this region should return to phase 0, but you know...

 

[BsdKurt]

The airborne lifetime of small speech droplets and their potential importance in SARS-CoV-2 transmission
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/12/2006874117

[ Abstract

Speech droplets generated by asymptomatic carriers of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are increasingly considered to be a likely mode of disease transmission. Highly sensitive laser light scattering observations have revealed that loud speech can emit thousands of oral fluid droplets per second. In a closed, stagnant air environment, they disappear from the window of view with time constants in the range of 8 to 14 min, which corresponds to droplet nuclei of ca. 4 μm diameter, or 12- to 21-μm droplets prior to dehydration. These observations confirm that there is a substantial probability that normal speaking causes airborne virus transmission in confined environments. ]

I thought I read about this before... they sent a letter to the editor of the New England Journal of Medicine back on April 15th:

Visualizing Speech-Generated Oral Fluid Droplets with Laser Light Scattering

"When the same phrase was uttered three times through a slightly damp washcloth over the speaker’s mouth, the flash count remained close to the background level (mean, 0.1 flashes); this showed a decrease in the number of forward-moving droplets (see the bottom trace in Figure 1A)."

"Our aim was to provide visual evidence of speech-generated droplets and to qualitatively describe the effect of a damp cloth cover over the mouth to curb the emission of droplets."

Ok, useful info, but who is going to walk around with a damp cloth on their faces. Let's get some practical info about what type of face covering stops the droplets asap so we can get this thing under control.

 

[PierreV]

Ok, useful info, but who is going to walk around with a damp cloth on their faces. Let's get some practical info about what type of face covering stops the droplets asap so we can get this thing under control.

Yes, a pity they don't define "damp" more precisely. But, in practice, any cloth/mask you wear can be considered "damp"

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41370-018-0089-y

 

[Xulonn]

Interesting
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...YGs_rbzsa0vG-VlebyjPFGRzxNUwXaeg0IrqMkoRbCys#

This excellent story of a virologist and his battle with Covid-19 ends with:

Anyway, I remain a born optimist. And now that I have faced death, my tolerance levels for nonsense and bullshit have gone down even more than before. So, I continue calmly and enthusiastically, although more selectively than before my illness.”

 

[Xulonn]

It's tough but I think we can say Britain has not done well with this outbreak, we do have the best slogans though and the British public continue to be mesmerised by them lol

B.S. Thomas.

USA slogans are the best - more bigly and more blatantly untrue!

 

[MediumRare]

As an alternate viewpoint , have a gander at this

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/13/attention-citizens-the-covid19-emergency-is-over/

Unlucky me.

Next two data points are 192 and 136.

 

[MediumRare]

https://electomania.es/covid-19-14m...ero-hoy-quizas-se-deba-a-cambios-en-cataluna/

COVID-19. Last week died per million inhabitants

View attachment 63356

Keep trying Sweden, you’ll be number one soon. Then we can all follow your lead.